Science News
Published: Jun 23, 2014
Storms target New York\East Coast in 2014 [VIDEOS]
by staff


Storms target New York\East Coast in 2014 [VIDEOS], We continue to foresee a below - average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season but with tropical storms to possibly target the east coast of the United States including New York.

The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing forecasters to increase their forecast slightly.
There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast, including 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983, 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004.

Meteorologists say the pattern favors stronger storms in-close to the U.S. rather than in the deep tropics.

Forecasters estimate that 20 14 will have about 4 hurricanes ( median is 6.5 ), 10 named storms ( median is 12.0 ), 40 named storm days ( median is 60.1 ), 15 hurricane days ( median is 21.3 ), 1 major (Category 3 - 4 - 5) hurricane ( median is 2.0 ) and 3 major hurricane days ( median is 3.9 ).

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long - period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2 0 14 to be approximately 70 per cent of the long - term average. This forecast is slightly higher than the forecast that was issued in early April.

This forecast is based on a new extended - range early June statistical pr ediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized.

Forecasters anticipate a below - average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter c ooler than normal tropical Atlantic. Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. Go here for several videos outlining the forecast.

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